The Escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict

The Significance for Africa

Abstract

Like the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the conflict between Israel and Iran-supported Hamas, has had a tremendous impact on the continent.

As the war lasted and both sides showed a blatant disregard for international law, international humanitarian law and human rights, African response has been sterner and more entrenched.

The bombing of Iran's consulate in Damascus and lack of condemnation thereof, combined with Iran's retaliation against Israel, usually described as both bold and restrained, will likely play in Iran's favour while encouraging anti-westernism.

Both Israel and Palestine have been counting their allies. That ambiguity ceased to be tenable has played against Israel, and will continue to do so. Until now, only Cameroon, DRC, Morocco, the Seychelles, and vulnerable/dependent countries such as South Sudan and Malawi have been firmly standing with Israel. Pressure will now intensify on Israel's allies and supports.

Meanwhile, countries that had unofficial relations with Israel (Libya, Mauritania, Somalia) desisted, except for Sudan. Algeria, Namibia and South Africa led the charge against Israel at the ICJ and the UNSC.

That war was already an opportunity for Iran to launch a wide diplomatic offensive through Africa, including improved relations with Algeria and South Africa. Djibouti and Sudan reestablished diplomatic relations, while talks are ongoing with Somalia. Relations are at an all time high with the new Sahel States Alliance. Iran will find her diplomatic offensive on the continent still easier to lead.

Meanwhile, the rekindling of support for the Palestinian cause and Israel's appalling conduct in Gaza have greatly strengthened and emboldened terrorist groups throughout Africa. Somalia's PM speech praising Hamas had decided some within the federal army to defect in favour of Al Shabaab.

Finally, disruptions in the Red Sea are more likely than ever to subside and disrupt trade for all African states bordering it, from Egypt to Somalia.

The tussle over foreign naval bases on the Eastern African coast will also grow more fierce. It is however unlikely at this time that Sudan will either fully normalize relations with Israel or fully side with Iran by granting it a naval base.

All these trends, that grew stronger by the day as the war in Gaza lasted and intensified and as the ICJ has pointed to a plausible genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza strip, will only amplify as Hamas-backer Iran and Israel are likely to keep striking each other directly - or even escalate the conflict into a full-blown war.