This is an outdated version published on 2025-02-04. Read the most recent version.

Dr Coup d’état in West Africa

A Resurgence of Military Rule in the 21st- Century?

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.12700/jceeas.2024.4.3-4.298

Keywords:

Coup d’état, France, Military Rule, Resurgence, West Africa

Abstract

Recent developments in some West African countries are a classic case of reversal of democratic rule and have raised doubts about the feasibility of democracy in Africa. This study examines the factors that have led to the resurgence of coups d'état and the possibility of constructing a new typology of coups d'état and military rule in 21st century Africa. Documented data sources were used for the study and the method of analysis was content analysis. The study compared the nature and characteristics of recent coups with those of the past and the predominant causes. The study made an attempt to identify the gap in the theories by examining the various theories on military interventions, postulating an alternative theory that can better explain the current phenomenon different from those of the 1980s. The study is an early warning that military rule could re-emerge in West Africa and Africa.

References

Abayomi, O. (2023). “Consequences of Fuel Subsidy Removal on Nigeria’s Balance of Trade.”

Vanguard (June 28, 2023). Retrieved from https://www.vanguardngr.com/2023/06/consequences-of-fuel-subsidy-removal-on-nigerias-balance-of-trade/ on 30th August 2023 at 04:11 pm.

Adeyanju, J. B., & Adeyanju, F. O. (2023). Rethinking the Economic Implications of

Leadership Deficit in Nigeria. Kashere Journal of Politics and International Relations, 1(1), 28-39. https://journals.fukashere.edu.ng/index.php/kjpir/article/view/82.

Agyeman-Duah, B. (1990). Military Coups, Regime Change, and Interstate Conflicts in West

Africa. Armed Forces & Society, 16(4), 547-570. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X9001600404.

Ake, C. (1996). Democracy and Development in Africa. Washington: Brookings Institution.

Akinola, A.O., & Ratidzo C. M. (2022). The Resurgence of Military Coups and Democratic

Reversals in Africa. Auckland: Institute for Pan-African Thought and Conversation.

Albert, I.O., & Olumayowa, O.A. (2022). “Coup Contagion in Africa: Is the Past Different

from the Present?” African Journal on Terrorism, Special Edition on Implications of Coups D 'etat and Political Instability on Terrorism and Violent Extremism in the Sahel (October 2022), 13-30.

Albrecht, H., & Eibl, F. (2018). How to Keep Officers in the Barracks: Causes, Agents, and

Types of Military Coups. International Studies Quarterly, 62(2), 315-328. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqx085.

Al-Hamdi, D. M. (2014). Military in-and-out of Politics: A Theoretical Approach to Military

Disengagement. International Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 4(8), 193-201.

Amoateng, N. (2022). “Military Coups in Africa: A Continuation of Politics by Other Means?”

Accord (August 19th 2022). Retrieved from https://www.accord.org.za/conflict-trends/military-coups-in-africa-a-continuation-of-politics-by-other-means/ on 30th August 2023 at 05:45 pm.

Anene, J. N. (1995). Military Coups and Redemocratisation in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of

Third World Studies, 12(1), 181-200. https://www.jstor.org/stable/45197413.

Ani, N. C. (2021). Coup or not Coup: The African Union and the Dilemma of “Popular

Uprisings” in Africa. Democracy and Security, 17(3), 257-277. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/17419166.2021.1899915.

Anyoko-Shaba, O. (2022). The Resurgence of Military Coups d’état in African Politics and the

Reversal of Democracy. University of Nigeria Journal of Political Economy, 12(1), 124-135. https://www.unjpe.com/index.php/UNJPE/article/view/186.

Arise (2023). Mining and Mineral Industry in Gabon: Unwinding the Potential of Mineral

Extraction and Processing. Arise Integrated Industrial Platforms, 2023. Retrieved from https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/gabon-coup-omar-ali-bongo-history-b2401733.html on 30th August 2023 at 09:37 pm.

Assensoh, A.B., & Alex-Assensoh, Y.M. (2001). African Military History and Politics Coups

and Ideological Incursions, 1900–Present. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

Attah, N.E. (2012). “Constitutional Democracy and Military Rule in Nigeria: Two Sides of the

Same Coin?” In Olawale, A., Ogen, O., & Attah, N.E. (Eds.), Critical Perspectives on Peace, Conflict and Warfare in Africa, pp.223-238. Ile-Ife: Obafemi Awolowo University Press.

Attah, N.E. (2013). The Historical Conjunction of Neo-Colonialism and Underdevelopment in

Nigeria. Journal of African Studies and Development, 5(5), 70-79. http://www.academicjournlas.org/JASD.

Aubyn, F. K., Ziblim, I., & Apau, R. (2022). “Implications of Unconstitutional Changes of

Government on Violent Extremism and Terrorism Interventions: What More Could ECOWAS and AU do? African Journal on Terrorism, Special Edition on Implications of Coups D 'etat and Political Instability on Terrorism and Violent Extremism in the Sahel (October, 2022): 111-124.

Avoulete, K. (2022). Should ECOWAS Rethink its Approach to Coups? Philadelphia: Foreign

Policy Research Institute, 3 February 2022. Retrieved from https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/02/should-ecowas-rethink-its-approach-to-coups/ on 30th August 2023 at 05:51 pm.

Barany, Z. (2012). The Soldier and the Changing State: Building Democratic Armies in Africa,

Asia, Europe, and the Americas. New Jersey: Princeton University Press.

Bett, R. (2023). For King or Country? The Role of Political Parties in Ensuring Democracy

and Good Governance. The Role of Political Parties in Ensuring Democracy and Good Governance. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4472664.

Brömmelhörster, J., & Wolf-Christian, P. (2003). “Soldiers in Business: An Introduction”. In

Brömmelhörster, J., & Wolf-Christian, P. (Eds.), The Military as an Economic Factor: Soldiers in Business. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2003.

Carney, J. J. (2012). ‘Far from Having Unity, We are Tending Towards Total Disunity’: The

Catholic Major Seminary in Rwanda, 1950–62. Studies in World Christianity, 18(1), 82-102. https://www.euppublishing.com/doi/abs/10.3366/swc.2012.0007.

Charlton, R. (1983). Predicting African Military Coups”. Futures, 15(4) 281-292.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(83)90129-5.

Cheeseman, N. (2021). “Lessons from Africa. “Is there such a Good Coup”?” Africa Report

(September 20th, 2021). Retrieved from https://www.theafricareport.com/128857/lessons-from-africa-is-there-such-a-thing-as-a-good-coup/ on 30th August 2023 at 05:28 pm.

Collier, P., & Hoeffler, A. (2005). Coup Traps: Why does Africa have so many Coups D’état?

Oxford: Centre for the Study of African Economies, Department of Economics, University of Oxford.

Daily Trust Newspaper (2023). “Fresh Coup in Africa: Gabon President Removed”. Daily

Trust (30th August 2023). Retrieved from https://dailytrust.com/breaking-fresh-coup-in-africa-gabon-president-removed/#: on 30th August 2023 at 04:13 pm.

Decalo, S. (1973). Military coups and military regimes in Africa. The Journal of Modern

African Studies, 11(1), 105-127. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X00008107.

Edeh, H. C., & Ugwueze, M. I. (2014). Military and Politics: Understanding the Theoretical

Underpinnings of Military Incursion in Third World Politics. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(20), 2047-2058. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5901/MJSS.2014.V5N1P481.

Ejiogu, E. C. (2007). Colonial Army Recruitment Patterns and Post-Colonial Military Coups

D'etat in Africa: The Case of Nigeria, 1966-1993. Scientia Militaria: South African Journal of Military Studies, 35(1), 100-132. https://www.ajol.info/index.php/smsajms/article/view/75317.

Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (2023). Burkina Faso: Overview and Role of the

EITI. Wednesday 15th May, 2023. Retrieved from https://eiti.org/countries/burkina-faso on 30th August 2023 at 04:15 pm.

Feit, E. (1968). Military Coups and Political Development: Some Lessons from Ghana and

Nigeria. World Politics, 20(2), 179-193. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2009794.

Finer, S.E. (2002). The Man on Horseback: The Role of the Military in Politics. London:

Transaction Publishers.

Fukuyama, F. (1996). End of History and the Last Man. New York: Free Press.

Global Terrorism Index (2023). 2022 Global Terrorism Index. Stockholm: Institute for Peace

and Economic Research.

Gutteridge, W. (1985). Undoing Military Coups in Africa. Third World Quarterly, 7(1), 78-89.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/01436598508419825.

Harkness, K. A. (2016). The Ethnic Army and the State: Explaining Coup Traps and the

Difficulties of Democratisation in Africa. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 60(4), 587-616. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002714545332.

Hoel, R. (2008). Civil-Military Relations in Nigeria and Tanzania: A Comparative, Historical

Analysis. Thesis Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts (International Studies) at the Stellenbosch University, December 2008, 23.

Hoel, R. (2008). Civil-Military Relations in Nigeria and Tanzania: A Comparative, Historical

Analysis. Thesis Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts (International Studies) at the Stellenbosch University, December 2008).

Huntington, S.P. (1975). Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven: Yale University

Press.

Huntington, S.P. (1996). The Clash of Civilisation and the Remaking of World Order. New

York: Free Press.

Huntington, S.P. (2000a). The Soldier and the State. The Theory and Politics of Civil-Military

Relations. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Huntington, S.P. (2000b). The Third Wave: Democratisation in the Twentieth Century.

Oklahoma: University of Oklahoma Press.

International Trade Administration (2020). Chad Country Commercial Guide: Mining and

Precious Metals. (7th September 2020) Retrieved from https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/chad-mining-and-precious-metals on 30th August 2023 at 04:03 pm.

International Trade Administration (2022a). Mali Country Commercial Guide: Mining.

Retrieved from https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/mali-mining on 30th August 2023 at 04:06 pm.

International Trade Administration (2022b). Guinea Country Commercial Guide: Mining and

Minerals. Retrieved from https://www.trade.gov/country-commercial-guides/guinea-mining-and-minerals on 30th August 2023 at 04:06 pm.

Janowitz, M. (1964a).Military Institutions and Coercion in the Developing Nations. Chicago:

The University of Chicago Press.

Janowitz, M. (1964b). The Military in the Political Development of New Nations: An Essay in

Comparative Analysis. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.

Jawo, M. (2022). The Re-emergence of Military Coups in Africa: An Analysis of the African

Union Response to the Unconstitutional Change of Government in Chad in 2021. Political Science: Global Politics and Societal Change One-year master 15 Credits Summer, 2022, Malmo University.

Jenkins, J. C., & Kposowa, A. J. (1990). Explaining Military Coups d'Etat: Black Africa, 1957-

American Sociological Review, 861-875. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2095751.

Jenkins, J. C., & Kposowa, A. J. (1992). The Political Origins of African Military Coups:

Ethnic Competition, Military Centrality, and the Struggle Over the Postcolonial State. International Studies Quarterly, 36(3), 271-291. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2600773.

Kalu, K.A. (2021). “Coups d’État: Theoretical Issues”, In Kieh Jr. G.K. & Kalu, K.A. (Eds.),

Democratisation and Military Coups in Africa Post-1990 Political Conflicts, pp.51-73. Lanham, Lexington: Rowman & Littlefield.

Kandil, H. (2016). The Power Triangle: Military, Security, and Politics in Regime Change.

New York: Oxford University Press.

Kieh Jr., G.K. & Kalu, K.A. (2021) “Introduction: “No Farewell to Arms in Africa?” In Kieh

Jr., G.K. & Kalu, K.A. (Eds.), Democratisation and Military Coups in Africa Post-1990 Political Conflicts, pp.1-15. Lanham, Lexington: Rowman & Littlefield.

Kposowa, A. J., & Jenkins, J. C. (1993). The Structural Sources of Military Coups in

Postcolonial Africa, 1957-1984. American Journal of Sociology, 99(1), 126-163. DOI: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/230231.

Le Van, C.A. (2015). Dictators and Democracy in African Development: The Political

Economy of Good Governance in Nigeria. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Lindberg & S. I., & Clark, J. F. (2008). Does Democratization Reduce the Risk of Military

Interventions in Politics in Africa? Democratisation, 15(1), 86-105. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/13510340701768182.

Luard, E. (1988). The Blunted Sword: The Erosion of Military Power in Modern World

Politics, London: I B Tauris.

Luckham, R. (1994). The Military, Militarization and Democratization in Africa: A Survey of

Literature and Issues. African Studies Review, 37(2), 13-75. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/524766.

Matei, F.C (2012). “A New Conceptualisation of Civil-Military Relations”. In Bruneau, T.C.,

& Matei, F.C. (Eds.), The Routledge Handbook of Civil–Military Relations, pp.26-38. London: Routledge, Taylor & Francis.

Mbaku, J.M. (1994). Military Coup as Rent-Seeking Behaviour. Journal of Political and

Military Sociology, 22(2), 241-284. https://www.jstor.org/stable/45371310.

McGowan, P., & Johnson, T. H. (1984). African Military Coups d'État and Underdevelopment:

A Quantitative Historical Analysis. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 22(4), 633-666. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X00056275.

McGowan, P., & Johnson, T. H. (1986). Sixty Coups in Thirty Years–Further Evidence

Regarding African Military Coups D'état. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 24(3), 539-546. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X00007175.

McGowan, P. J. (2003). African Military Coups D'état, 1956–2001: Frequency, Trends and

Distribution. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 41(3), 339-370. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X0300435X.

McGowan, P. J. (2005). Coups and Conflict in West Africa, 1955-2004: Part I, Theoretical

Perspectives. Armed Forces & Society, 32(1), 5-23. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X05277885.

McGowan, P. J. (2006). Coups and Conflict in West Africa, 1955-2004: Part II, Empirical

Findings. Armed Forces & Society, 32(2), 234-253. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X05277886.

Mo Ibrahim Foundation (2022). 2022 Ibrahim Index of African Governance. Mo Ibrahim

Foundation, 2022. Retrieved from https://iiag.online/downloads.html on 30th August 2023 at 03:40 pm.

Mohammed, H. (2022). “The Resurgence of Military Coups in Africa and the Role of the

African Union (AU)”. Socialscientia Journal of the Social Sciences and Humanities, 7(3), 83-110. https://journals.aphriapub.com/index.php/SS/.

Mwai, P. (2023). “Are Military Takeovers on the Rise in Africa?” Real Clear Defense (January

2023). Retrieved from https://www.realcleardefense.com/2023/01/05/are_military_takeovers_on_the_rise_inafrica_873912.html on 30th August 2023 at 05:20 pm.

National Bureau of Statistics (2022). Nigeria: Quarterly Report. Abuja: NBS, 2022. Retrieved

from www.nbs.gov.org on 30th August 2023 at 04:18 pm.

Ngoma, N. (2004). Coups and Coup Attempts in Africa: Is there a Missing Link? African

Security Studies, 13(3), 85-94. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10246029.2004.9627307.

Nsaibia, H. (2023). “Fact Sheet: Military Coup in Niger”. ACLED Data (3rd August, 2023).

Retrieved from https://acleddata.com/2023/08/03/fact-sheet-military-coup-in-niger/ on 30th August 2023 at 03:30 pm.

Ogueri, E. (1973). Theories and Motives of Military Coups D'état in Independent African

States. Africa Spectrum, 8(3), 280-302. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40173589.

Onwumechili, C. (1998). African Democratisation and Military Coups. Westport: Praeger.

Orhero, A. E., & Okolie, U. C. (2023). Nigeria's Trend of Military Administration and

Economic Decay: An Analytical Review. Social Sciences, Humanities and Education Journal (SHE Journal), 4(2), 355-381. DOI: http://doi.org/10.25273/she.v4i2.17683.

Orufa, S. (2023). “What are the Economic Implications of Niger’s Suspension of Uranium and

Gold Exports?” Ventures Africa (August 3, 2023). Retrieved from https://venturesafrica.com/what-are-the-economic-implications-of-nigers-suspension-of-uranium-and-gold-exports/ on 30th August 2023 at 03:45 pm.

Schiff, R.L. (2009). The Military and Domestic Politics. London: Routledge, Taylor & Francis.

Singh, N. (2014). Seizing Power. The Strategic Logic of Military Coups. Baltimore: John

Hopkins University Press.

Siollun, M. (2009). Oil, Politics, and Violence: Nigeria’s Military Coup (1966-1976). New

York: Algora Publishing.

Smith, B.C. (2003). Understanding Third World Politics. Theories of Political Change and

Development. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

Souaré, I. K. (2014). The African Union as a Norm Entrepreneur on Military Coups D’état in

Africa (1952–2012): An Empirical Assessment. The Journal of Modern African Studies, 52(1), 69-94. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022278X13000785.

Transparency International (2022). CPI 2022 for Sub-Saharan Africa: Corruption

Compounding Multiple Crises. Transparency International (2nd October, 2022). Retrieved from https://www.transparency.org/en/news/cpi-2022-sub-saharan-africa-corruption-compounding-multiple-crises on 30th August 2023 at 03:35 pm.

Efem N.U., & Efem, N. (2022). Africa's Zero Tolerance for Unconstitutional Changes of

Government: A Review of the Extant Protocols and Frameworks. African Journal on Terrorism, Special Edition on Implications of Coups D 'etat and Political Instability on Terrorism and Violent Extremism in the Sahel (October, 2022): 55-82.

Ventura, L. (2023). “Poorest Countries in the World 2023”. Global Finance (May 24, 2023).

Retrieved from https://www.gfmag.com/global-data/economic-data/the-poorest-countries-in-the-world on 30th August 2023 at 03:32 pm.

Wang, T.Y. (1998). Arms Transfers and Coups d’Etat: A Study on Sub-Saharan Africa.

Journal of Peace Research 35(6), 659-675. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343398035006001.

Wikings, S. (1983). “Military Coups in Sub-Saharan Africa: How to Justify Illegal

Assumptions of Power”. Uppsala: Scandinavian Institute of African Studies 57(1), 139-152. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/1160199.

Witts, A. (2020). Undoing Coups: The African Union and Post-Coup Intervention in

Madagascar. London: ZED Books.

Ziblim, I., Apau, R., & Luckham, F.K. (2022). “Implications of Unconstitutional Changes of

Government on Violent Extremism and Terrorism Interventions: What More Could ECOWAS and AU do? African Journal on Terrorism, Special Edition on Implications of Coups D 'etat and Political Instability on Terrorism and Violent Extremism in the Sahel (October, 2022): 111-124.

Zimmermann, E. (1979). Towards a Causal Model of Military Coup D’ Etat. Armed Forces

and Society, 5(3), 387-413. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X7900500304.

Zolberg, A.R. (1973). The Military Decade in Africa. World Politics 25(2), 309-331.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2010499.

Downloads

Published

2025-02-03 — Updated on 2025-02-04

Versions

How to Cite

Sule, B., Echa Attah, N., Sambo, U. ., Lummo Kachalla, B. ., & Tsoeu-Ntokoane, D. S. . (2025). Dr Coup d’état in West Africa : A Resurgence of Military Rule in the 21st- Century?. Journal of Central and Eastern European African Studies, 4(3-4), 53–73. https://doi.org/10.12700/jceeas.2024.4.3-4.298 (Original work published February 3, 2025)