Climate-related security risks in the Sahel

Abstract

The Sahel region, characterized by a semi-arid climate, faces significant climate-related security risks, including environmental degradation, food and water insecurity, and competition over dwindling natural resources. This paper explores the links between climate change and the rise of non-state armed groups (NSAGs), particularly Boko Haram, in the Lake Chad Basin. Climate change is rarely the primary cause of conflict, but it amplifies existing vulnerabilities such as poverty, marginalization, and resource scarcity, creating conditions that NSAGs exploit for recruitment and territorial expansion. Through a desk review of literature, case studies, and geospatial data, the paper highlights how desertification, droughts, and shifting rainfall patterns contribute to farmer-herder conflicts, displacement, and economic instability in the Sahel. The study underscores how groups like Boko Haram capitalize on these destabilizing factors to strengthen their influence, further fueling violence and insecurity. It also outlines international political and peacekeeping efforts addressing climate security in the region, including the role of UN missions. Ultimately, the paper argues that climate change exacerbates socio-economic challenges, which in turn fosters conflict, benefiting armed groups and undermining regional stability.