Terrorism, Humanitarian Complex, and the Imperative for Early Warning System in Africa

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.12700/jceeas.2026.6.2.466

Keywords:

Complex emergency, early warning, humanitarian crisis, terrorism

Abstract

This paper problematizes terrorism as a complex humanitarian crisis in Africa and makes a case for its mitigation through early warning system/ response. This is significant considering the apparent intractability of terrorism in parts of the continent, and its tendency to defy combat-oriented remediation. The paper posits that understanding terrorism as a complex emergency as well as deploying appropriate early warning mechanisms to forecast and respond to it is necessary to mitigating the threat as well as the humanitarian consequences thereof. The policy implication of this is that counter-terrorism protocols and strategies in Africa should seek to leverage and mainstream potentials for digitally amenable early warning system to make good their efficacy and utility.

References

Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS). (2023). African conflicts displace over 40 million people. Retrieved Huly 10, 2026 from https://africacenter.org/spotlight/african-conflicts-displace-over-40-million-people/

Ba, O. (2014). Tuareg nationalism and cyclical pattern of rebellions: How the past and the present explain each other. Working Paper Number 207. Center for African Studies, University of Florida. Retrieved July 10, 2026 from https://www.academia.edu/22606904/How_the_past_and_present_explain_each_other_Tuareg_Nationalism_and_Cyclical_Pattern_of_Rebellions

Bieh, K. L., Khan, A., Yezli, S., El-Ganainy, A., Asiri, S., & Alotaibi, B. (2020). Implementing the health early warning system based on syndromic and event-based surveillance at the 2019 Hajj. Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal, 25(12), 570-575. https://doi.org/10.26719/emhj.20.129

Bjorgo, T., & Andrew, S. (2018). Root causes of terrorism: Myths, reality and ways forward. Routledge Handbook of Terrorism and Counter-terrorism. Routledge.

Chovanec, D., Kollár, B., Halúsková, B., Kubás, J., Pawęska, M., & Ristvej, J. (2025). A Component-Based Approach to Early Warning Systems: A Theoretical Model. Applied Sciences, 15(6), 3218. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15063218

Coady, C. A. J. (2004). Terrorism, Morality, and Supreme Emergency. Ethics, 114, 772-789. https://doi.org/10.1086/383440

Ganor, B. (2002). Defining Terrorism: Is One Man's Terrorist another Man's Freedom Fighter? Police Practice and Research, 3, 287-304. https://doi.org/10.1080/1561426022000032060

Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). (2024). Vigilance committees’ dilemma in the fight against Boko Haram. Retrieved July 10, 2026 from https://issafrica.org/iss-today/vigilance-committees-dilemma-in-the-fight-against-boko-haram

Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). (2025a). Boko Haram’s intelligence networks fuel its deadly resurgence. Retrieved July 10, 2026 from https://issafrica.org/iss-today/boko-haram-s-intelligence-networks-fuel-its-deadly-resurgence

Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP). (2025b). Measuring The Impact of Terrorism, Sydney, March 2025. Global Terrorism Index 2025. Retrieved July 10, 2026 from http://visionofhumanity.org/resources

Institute for security Studies (ISS). (2024a). Capitalising on Operation Lake Sanity’s success against Boko Haram. Retrieved July 10, 2026 from https://issafrica.org/iss-today/capitalising-on-operation-lake-sanity-s-success-against-boko-haram

Institute for security Studies (ISS). (2024b). Cattle rustling: A lifeline for Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin. Retrieved July 10, 2026 from https://issafrica.org/iss-today/cattle-rustling-a-lifeline-for-boko-haram-in-the-lake-chad-basin

Institute for security Studies (ISS). (2024c). Dialogue and negotiation: alternative solutions to Boko Haram conflict? Retrieved July 10, 2026 from https://issafrica.org/iss-today/dialogue-and-negotiation-alternative-solutions-to-boko-haram-conflict

Kiegh Jr, G. K., & Kalu, K. (Eds.). (2022). Insurgency, Terrorism, and Counter-terrorism in Africa. Lexington Books.

León, J. C. V. d., Bogardi, J. J., Dannenmann, S. R., & Basher, R. E. (2006). Early warning systems in the context of disaster risk management. Entwicklung and Landlicher Raum, 40, 23-25.

Lewis, D., Zafra, M., & Adombila, M. A. (May 1, 2026). Mali attacks spotlight the growing reach of militants across West Africa. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/MALI-SECURITY/SAHEL/zgvolldmopd/

Mali, Mauritania and Senegal must unite against cross-border terrorism (2025). Retrieved July 10, 2025 from https://issafrica.org/iss-today/mali-mauritania-and-senegal-must-unite-against-cross-border-terrorism

Meisels, T. (2009). Defining terrorism – a typology. Critical Review of International Social and Political Philosophy, 12(3), 331-351. https://doi.org/10.1080/13698230903127853

National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). (2025). Anual Abstract of Statistics. Retrieved July 10, 2026 from https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/

Okoli, A. C. (2023). Al Qaeda: Scoping and countering jihadist nebula in West Africa In G. K. Kiegh & K. A. Kalu Jnr. (Eds.), Insurgency, Terrorism, and Counter-terrorism in Africa. Lexington.

Okoli, A. C., Aina, F., & Onuoha, F. C. (2025). Banditry and “captive population syndrome” in northern Nigeria. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, 18(1), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2024.2356509

Okoli, A. C., & Iortyer, P. (2014). Terrorism and humanitarian crisis in Nigeria: Insights from Boko Haram insurgency. Global Journal of Human Social Science, 14(1), 39-49.

Okoli, A. C., & Ngom, S. (Eds.). (2023). Banditry and security crisis in Nigeria. Routledge.

Okoli, P. (2017). Nigeria: Volunteer Vigilantism and Counter-Insurgency in the North-East. Conflict Studies Quarterly, 34-55. https://doi.org/10.24193/csq.20.3

Oxfam. (2021). Early warning mechanisms. Oxfam Policy & Practice. https://doi.org/10.21201/2021.7963

Prabha, K. (2000). Defining terrorism. Strategic Analysis, 24, 125-135. https://doi.org/10.1080/09700160008455199

Pradhan, D., Katiyar, A., Kumar, M., Katiyar, P., & Kaur, P. (2025). Early Warning through Genomic Surveillance in Epidemic Management. In N. Padilla-Raygoza, A. D. Parsa, & R. Kabir (Eds.), Epidemic and Pandemic Preparedness and Management. IntechOpen. https://doi.org/10.5772/intechopen.1012546

Rincon Pabon, C. I., Torres, J. A. G., Cueto, D. a. R., Morantes, J. F. R., Martínez, D. F. M., & Herrera, E. P. (2025). System for early warning in hostile areas in the context of the military applications. Revista Logos Ciencia & Tecnología, 17(1), 12-26. https://doi.org/10.22335/rlct.v17i1.2012

Schimid, A. (2004). Terrorism – The definitional problem. Case Western Reserve Journal of International Law, 36(2), 375-419.

Stacey, J., Wilkinson, E., Weingartner, L., & Thomas, A. (2025). The long road to acting ahead: Lessons from the evolution of early warning systems and anticipatory action. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science, 16(2), 123-137. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-025-00642-3

Statista. (2023). Number of people killed in terrorist attacks in selected African countries in 2021. Retrieved July 10, 2026 from https://www.statista.com/statistics/1419564/fatalities-terrorism-africa/?srsltid=AfmBOooqsDm0TrcH9h2A3Qs5zGMu99mTiz7ScH50N88RUgYY8A3bJYq_

United Nations Digital Library. (2021). Global trends : forced displacement in 2021. Retrieved July 10, 2026 from https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3977817?ln=en&v=pdf

United Nations Humanitarian Commission for Refugees (UNHCR). (2022). Global Trend Report 2022. Retrieved July 10, 2026 from https://www.unhcr.org/global-trends-report-2022

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA). The humanitarian community warns that 34.5 million people need humanitarian assistance as violence haunts the Sahel region. Retrieved July 10, 2026 from https://www.unocha.org/publications/report/burkina-faso/humanitarian-community-warns-345-million-people-need-humanitarian-assistance-violence-haunts-sahel-region

United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). (2023). Crisis in the Horn of Africa. Retrieved July 10, 2026 from https://www.unfpa.org/

United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). (2025). Mali Situation Report #4 - April 2025. Retrieved July 10, 2026 from https://www.unfpa.org/resources/mali-situation-report-4-april-2025

United States Agency for International Development (USAID). (2000). Strategic Plan. Retrieved July 10, 2026 from https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GOVMAN-2000-06-01/pdf/GOVMAN-2000-06-01-Pg541.pdf

Downloads

Published

2026-09-22

How to Cite

Okoli, A. C., & Eucharia Eze, C. (2026). Terrorism, Humanitarian Complex, and the Imperative for Early Warning System in Africa. Journal of Central and Eastern European African Studies, 6(2), 89–104. https://doi.org/10.12700/jceeas.2026.6.2.466

Issue

Vol. 6 No. 2 (2026): JCEEAS - Vol 6. Number 2 2026

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2026 Al Chukwuma Okoli, Chika Eucharia Eze

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Licensing and Copyright Policy
 
JCEEAS strives to ensure that all materials on this website represent the original work of the listed author(s). However, the Journal provides no warranty regarding the accuracy or completeness of the material and disclaims any responsibility for it. Users should not rely solely on the information presented and are encouraged to verify details with the authors directly.
 
All articles published in JCEEAS are open access and licensed under Creative Commons 4.0 BY standards. Upon publication, articles are immediately accessible for free reading, downloading, copying, and distribution. This license is permanent and irrevocable.
 
Authors retain their intellectual property rights, including research data, and are entitled to proper credit and attribution for their published work.
 
This copyright policy grants users the right to: distribute and copy the article; create extracts, abstracts, and other revised versions, adaptations, or derivative works (including translations); include the article in a collective work (e.g., an anthology); and text or data mine the article. These uses are permitted for commercial purposes, provided the user: credits the author(s) appropriately (including a link to the formal publication via the DOI); includes a link to the license; indicates if changes were made; and refrains from representing the author(s) as endorsing any adaptation of the article or modifying the article in a way that could harm the authors' honor or reputation.